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3 Patterns of Successful Super Bowl Teams

3 Patterns of Successful Super Bowl Teams

Aug 8, 2013

Winning a Super Bowl is the ultimate goal of every NFL ball club. Each year GM’s are constructing a team via the draft and free agency with a Super Bowl team in mind. If they want to be successful, they might want to pay attention to some recent trends of teams that won the Super Bowl.

Using a sample of Super Bowl champions since the year 2000, I’ve discovered patterns that lead to success. It may not seem like a lot of seasons, but 13 years is actually a decent sample in the NFL.

1. Defense is the most important piece of the puzzle

What the sample shows:

The most consistent part of winning a Super Bowl seems to be defense. Offensive teams succeed in the regular season, but defensive teams tend to win the Super Bowls. 4 of the 13 teams have been 1st in defense, and 8 of the teams have been in the top-10. QB’s and RB’s can carry a bad defense to a Super Bowl, but more often than not it’s the defense carrying the offense.

What GM’s should do about it:

Teams should focus on defensive players in the draft and free agency. Instead of picking up a potential star WR, teams should plug a defensive leak. A poor defensive team rarely wins the Super Bowl, and when they do it’s because of a Superstar performance from their QB (Peyton Manning ’06 Colts, Drew Brees ’09 Saints). The chances of drafting a good defensive player trump the chances of drafting a player of Manning or Brees’ potential.

2. Regular season success doesn’t matter that much.

What the sample shows:

Only 3 teams have finished 1st in the regular season league standings. The rest of the teams are finishing on average 3rd through 5th. This is sometimes a result of a team catching fire at the right time, or a team falling apart at the wrong time. Either way, there’s a definite pattern indicating that the best regular season team usually doesn’t win the Super Bowl. Teams like the 2011 15-1Packers (lost to the 9-7 Giants in the playoffs), the 2011 16-0 Patriots (lost to the 9-7 Giants in the Super Bowl), and the 2012 13-3 Denver Broncos (lost to the 10-6 Ravens in the playoffs) all come to mind.

What GM’s should do about it:

The solution to this one might not be so easy. Obviously coaches are going to try to win regular season games, but it’s possible that teams are being pushed too hard in regular season games. It’s also conceivable that some teams are just built to win in the regular season as opposed to the postseason. GM’s should study patterns of teams that finish with a poor regular season record yet win the Super Bowl.

3. The age of the coach matters

What the sample shows:

The average coach age was 48.7 years old. No coach was younger than 35 or older than 65.

What GM’s should do about it:

Age obviously shouldn’t be the top factor in hiring a coach, but there’s a serious pattern of winning coaches ages in the NFL and it should be acknowledged. Though straying from the average age may not be a huge deal, you’re probably making a mistake if you’re hiring a 29 or 72 year old.

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